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Economic figures have generally proved disappointing since the end of spring, but investors are torn between several perspectives. Should the focus be cyclical risks, the stabilising effects of rate cuts, or even the increased potential for welcome surprises that comes with growth expectations being revised downwards?

August will show that, just as investors were starting to worry, the Federal Reserve has fully regained its ability to reassure them, thanks to a slowdown in inflation. It remains to be seen whether growth prospects will improve outside the United States, particularly in Europe, where skepticism is returning with a vengeance.

As the Northern Hemisphere winds down for the summer, investors are turning their thoughts to what might be profitable themes in the second half of 2024, as evidenced by an intense factor and sector rotation on the markets. The most successful stocks of recent months (tech and luxury-goods giants, major manufacturers of anti-obesity drugs etc.) are being sold off in favour of others.

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