COP30 in Brazil and European climate targets: what can we expect on the stock market?
Ahead of the30thConference of the Parties to be held in Brazil between 10 and 21 November 2025, the European Union has announced new climate targets for 2035 and 2040. Laurent Trulès, fund manager and analyst at Dorval Asset Management, reviews the key issues to watch at COP30, the implications of the new European climate targets and their potential impact on the stock market. This is an opportunity to challenge the dynamism of the eco-activities in which our climate-themed funds (Dorval European Climate Initiative and Green-Got Sustainable Future) invest.
What should we expect from COP30 in Brazil, dubbed the "COP of truth"?
The 2009 Copenhagen Agreement (COP15) and the 2015 Paris Agreement (COP21) marked turning points in the structuring of ambitious and binding climate targets at the international level and paved the way for the sustainable finance momentum we see today. Ten years after the Paris Agreement, and following three years marked by political and budgetary setbacks and weariness towards the environment and ecological transition, Brazil, the host of the event, has dubbed this edition the "COP of truth", emphasising the need for stronger collective action and more effective environmental governance. This unmissable annual climate event brings together all stakeholders (governments, municipalities, businesses, NGOs, scientists, etc.) to make progress on climate issues. However, the highly political nature of this event often leads to laborious discussions and consensual decisions that fall far short of what the climate emergency requires.
For the first time, the global climate conference is being held in the heart of the Amazon, highlighting the protection of tropical forests, social justice and the bioeconomy. States are being called upon to present more ambitious climate commitments to limit global warming to +1.5°C, with a particular focus on financing the energy transition and preserving ecosystems. While the phasing out of fossil fuels has been agreed upon in recent COPs, it will be necessary to pay close attention to any references to this central element of the energy transition. Similarly, although the United States has already indicated that it will not participate in this event, it is entirely possible that it will nevertheless attempt to slow down potential progress. Adaptation to climate change and the financing of aid to developing countries will also be central topics of discussion. Ideas for global solidarity taxes are being explored with a view to greater climate justice. The definition of common measurement indicators for all regions of the world to collectively adapt to the challenges posed by climate change could also emerge. Brazil is proposing the creation of a new national carbon market framework and an "open coalition for carbon market integration". This welcome initiative serves as a reminder that the climate transition is also a matter of economics, investment and regulation.
New European climate targets: significant visibility for investors
Since the Paris Agreement, every five years at the COP, countries must submit an updated version of their nationally determined contributions to illustrate the efforts each of them is making to reduce their national emissions and adapt to the effects of climate change . By the end of September, countries representing 30% of global emissions had submitted their contributions. Consequently, countries covering 70% of global emissions had not yet made their contributions public and will be required to do so by the start of the COP on 10 November.
Among these countries, the European Union, which accounts for 7% of global emissions, has finalised its roadmap after lengthy discussions. This roadmap reconfirms the European Union's leadership on the path to carbon neutrality by reaffirming its commitment to reduce its net emissions by 55% by 2030 compared to 1990 and to aim for carbon neutrality by 2050. The European Union is introducing new targets: a reduction of almost 70% by 2035 and 90% by 2040. However, the role of international carbon credits, which could account for 5% of the 2040 target, raises questions about the challenges posed by this ambitious goal. These targets send a strong signal ahead of COP30: the desire to keep the Paris Agreement target intact while ensuring visibility and the necessary framework for investment in the ecological transition in the European Union.
What can we expect from COP30 on the stock market?
Throughout COP in November, all eyes will be on the announcements made by political leaders, businesses and various stakeholders, scrutinising the impact this may have on the prospects of certain sectors (such as energy) or certain companies. COP30 may therefore have an impact on the stock market, but it should be remembered that, ultimately, it is the economic viability of these technologies and companies that will support the sustainability of their performance over the long term. This economic viability is further strengthened year after year by price competitiveness, which benefits from economies of scale and improved optimisation and control of green technologies, helping to democratise their presence in our daily lives. In terms of performance, it is interesting to note that after several difficult years for green themes, 2025 seems to mark a turning point on the stock market. (For example, the Global Clean Energy Index rose 142% in 2020, fell 24% in 2021, 5% in 2022, 20% in 2023 and 26% in 2024, and rose 61% YTD in 2025).
The Dorval European Climate Initiative and Green-Got Sustainable Future funds (Article 9 SFDR , with dual SRI and Greenfin certification) are classified as "category 4" on the risk/return scale. This synthetic risk indicator (SRI) gives investors an idea of the risk of losses linked to the future performance of the product over its recommended lifetime. It is based on a scale ranging from 1 (corresponding to the lowest risk but not zero) to 7 (corresponding to the highest risk). The score combines two types of risk: market risk and credit risk. These funds are exposed to the following specific risks: discretionary management risk, equity risk, currency risk, credit risk, interest rate risk, risk associated with the use of derivatives, and sustainability risk. The capital invested is not guaranteed.