Points of view of Dorval AM experts

Top point of view
Exposure rates of the Dorval Asset Management Range – 26th November 2021
With the fifth Covid-19 wave tearing across Europe, news of the latest variant of concern B.1.1.529 has wreaked havoc on the financial markets. At this point, we will need to wait for more detailed analysis from scientists to ascertain whether this new variant will have a similar effect to the Delta mutation, which now dominates, or if it will be more on a par with other lesser variants that have remained in the minority (Eta, Iota, etc.) or locally contained, such as Gamma in Brazil. The burning question now is just how effective vaccines will be on this new mutation: details are expected over the coming two weeks, according to executives at Pfizer/BioNTech.
Top point of view
Exposure rates of the Dorval Asset Management Range – 19th November 2021
Economic activity stats in the United States point to a robust recovery in growth in the fourth quarter, with the Atlanta Fed’s Nowcast model projecting growth of 8.2% on an annualized basis, as compared with the “timid” 2% in the third quarter. This uptick is being driven by two factors – economies reopening after the outbreak of the Delta variant in the summer and the gradual easing in bottlenecks.
Top point of view
Exposure rates of the Dorval Asset Management Range – 12th November 2021
The latest consumer price index figures are striking, but reveal little of the underlying inflation situation, which hinges particularly on labor market conditions as well as the decentralized process of price setting in the economy. However, the extraordinary events that we have witnessed over the past 18 months – as the world economy was almost entirely shut down and reopened in a very controlled way, followed by record bottlenecks – make it tricky to interpret the forces at work here. To use Clausewitz’s expression, we are experiencing something of a fog of war.
Top point of view
Exposure rates of the Dorval Asset Management Range – 5th November 2021
Central banks have been blowing hot and cold on the bond markets as they stand sometimes hesitant in the face of inflation, but equity investors have latched onto the key message i.e. the monetary authorities do not want to jeopardize current economic momentum.
Top point of view
Exposure rates of the Dorval Asset Management Range – 29th October 2021
As the world gears up for the COP 26 climate conference in Glasgow, successive governments have announced support measures to shore up household spending power in response to rising energy prices.
Exposure rates of the Dorval Asset Management Range – 22nd October 2021
Chinese real estate titan Evergrande has managed to delay official default with an eleventh-hour dollar coupon payment just the day before the deadline. However, no clear plan has been set for restructuring the group, although the Chinese authorities have successfully managed to curtail financial contagion (cf. chart 1).
Exposure rates of the Dorval Asset Management Range – 15th October 2021
The growth downgrade/inflation upgrade process has popularized the stagflation concept, although this theory seems fairly unfitting against a backdrop of falling unemployment and reopening economies.
Exposure rates of the Dorval Asset Management Range – 8th October 2021
Extreme – and perhaps even excessive – tension on natural gas prices is representative of the rush to rebuild inventories on a whole range of products. However, the initially negative impact on world growth will be offset by the uptick for services, driven by success in getting a hold on the pandemic.
Exposure rates of the Dorval Asset Management Range – 1st October 2021
Successful efforts to get a handle on the pandemic are obviously very good news for the world economy, but there is also a downside, with severe tension on prices unsettling investors and some central banks poised to take a slightly less accommodative stance.
Exposure rates of the Dorval Asset Management Range – 24th September 2021
The transition from “whatever it takes” to self-sustaining economic growth is running up against supply glitches of unprecedented proportions, primarily in manufacturing. Tackling these supply-side constraints – which are affecting both prices and output – will be the major challenge for the quarters to come.
Exposure rates of the Dorval Asset Management Range – 17th September 2021
The weeks ahead will reveal how China will actually manage the Evergrande affair and hence provide some insight into the financial fallout. There will be a real economic impact for China, although this is set to be at least partly offset by the positive effects of greater control over the Delta variant.
Exposure rates of the Dorval Asset Management Range – 10th September 2021
If countries manage to get a full grip on the Delta variant, the output-price mix in the global recovery should finally start to pick up over the months ahead, particularly in manufacturing, where rising prices reflect sometimes massive bottlenecks.

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