Cyclical logics warrant the return of optimism - Dorval's Macro Corner (December 2019)

"Adapting economic knowledge to market realities and breaking free from the tyranny of indices"
François-Xavier Chauchat
Member of the Investment Committee, economist and strategist.
Already of record duration, the sustainability of the expansion cycle that started in 2009 is hotly debated. 

The very low unemployment rate in most developed countries, the inversion of the US yield curve last summer, and the almost continuous rise in asset prices suggest to some observers that time is ripe for a reversal. The economists surveyed by Bloomberg estimate at 33% the probability of a recession in America by the end of 2020. However, low inflation and the absence of major imbalances strongly argue in favor of an extension of the cycle. Central banks continue to support the economy, noting that the margin for further non-inflationary growth is higher than previously thought.

Dorval AM Premium

Would you like to continue reading this article?

Become a Premium subscriber in a few clicks and get free access to full and exclusive content.

Every week, you’ll have a rendezvous to better decipher market news
Every month, you’ll get comments by our financial analysts on economic outlooks
Unlimited access to the strategic viewpoints of Dorval AM managers
Clear and detailed information on the evolution of our funds

Let us provide you with a customized discovery by giving us some clarification.

Choose your profile