Points of view of Dorval AM experts

Top point of view
19/08/2019
Exposure rates of the Dorval Asset Management Range – 16th August 2019
Does a recession become more likely when the yield curve inverts?
Top point of view
12/08/2019
Exposure rates of the Dorval Asset Management Range – 9th August 2019
The week kicked off with the renminbi’s decline against the dollar, as it moved beyond the symbolic 7-to-the-dollar threshold (cf. chart 1), hot on the heels of Donald Trump’s surprise announcement at the end of last week that he would slap 10% border tariffs on the remaining $300bn in Chinese imports into the US. The Chinese authorities claim that they did not stage-manage this depreciation, but the underlying message is fairly clear – the battle of wills between the two heavyweights is far from over.
05/08/2019
Exposure rates of the Dorval Asset Management Range – 2nd August 2019
The Fed’s insurance cut – slicing 25bps off its federal funds rate on July 31 – was criticised by some, but swiftly proved to be timely when Donald Trump ratcheted trade tension up further and announced 10% border tariffs on another $300bn in Chinese imports that had so far escaped taxes, applicable as of September 1.
29/07/2019
Exposure rates of the Dorval Asset Management Range – 26th July 2019
Growth in the US economy came out at 2.1% in the second quarter, a nudge above the consensus but short of the 3.1% posted in the first quarter of the year. 
22/07/2019
Exposure rates of the Dorval Asset Management Range – 19th July 2019
GDP growth in China came out at 6.2% yoy in the second quarter of the year according to government statistics, in a gradual economic slowdown that is intentional on the authorities’ part, and inevitable as well as advisable.
15/07/2019
Exposure rates of the Dorval Asset Management Range – 12th July 2019
Long-term rates have been plummeting since the end of 2018, so questions on the meaning and impact of this trend for the stock-markets are foremost in investors’ minds.
08/07/2019
Exposure rates of the Dorval Asset Management Range – 5th July 2019
The much-awaited US non-farm payroll figures came out ahead of consensus expectations in June, as the economy added 224,000 new jobs vs 160,000 expected and 72,000 the previous month.
01/07/2019
Exposure rates of the Dorval Asset Management Range – 28th June 2019
Investors are banking on Donald Trump holding back in Osaka and a ceasefire being reached with China…only time will tell.
17/06/2019
Exposure rates of the Dorval Asset Management Range – 17th June 2019
Donald Trump avoided a worst-case scenario when he finally decided not to apply border tariffs on Mexican goods, so now we just need to hope that the escalating trade war with China can also be put to an end in late June at the G20 summit in Osaka. But there are huge doubts on this. 
11/06/2019
Exposure rates of the Dorval Asset Management Range – 7th June 2019
The great debate on the feasibility of a recessionary scenario in the US has kicked off. Poor payroll figures in May establish the economic slowdown in the country, but the Fed should react quickly by cutting interest rates. 
27/05/2019
Exposure rates of the Dorval Asset Management Range – 24th May 2019
Poor Markit business survey indicators in the US in May (cf. chart 1) are prompting some to wonder if an economic shock is brewing in the country.
20/05/2019
Exposure rates of the Dorval Asset Management Range – 20th May 2019
After the sudden hike in US border tariffs on Chinese imports at the start of the month, investors are now caught up in the cross-fire of the trade war again. China is retaliating gradually but surely, firstly by slightly upping duties on some US imports ($60bn), then by the drop in the yuan that is set to follow.

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