Exposure rates of the Dorval Asset Management Range – 29th April 2019

According to the first advance estimate, US GDP came out well ahead of expectations for the first quarter of the year, rising at an annual pace of 3.2% as compared with 2.3% expected. 

If we look at a more detailed breakdown, the strong contributions from external trade (1 point of GDP), inventories (0.7 points of GDP) and local spending (0.4 points of GDP) seem to be more a case of statistical noise, particularly after the federal government shutdown at the start of the year as well as the unexpected impact of the US and China successively upping the ante in a series of trade moves. If we strip out the contributions to GDP from world trade, inventories and government spending, we see that private final domestic demand gained only 1.3%.

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