Where does the US cycle stand?

Dorval AM
"At the service of a responsible saver, asset management supports economic cycles and societal issues"
Sophie Chauvellier
Portfolio Manager, Economic Research and Asset Allocation
The US economy officially emerged from recession in June 2009. This expansion cycle has therefore lasted for 78 months. The average post-war expansion in the US lasts 58 months with a maximum of 120 months (March 1991 to March 2001). The situation on the labour market seems to indicate that the cycle has entered a maturity phase that may last a rather long time. 

When the unemployment rate fell below the 5% mark in mid-2005, the expansion would last two and a half more years, and in the previous cycle (1991-2001), the expansion had survived an unemployment rate below 5% for another four years. The growth of the US economy will lead the Federal Reserve to continue its normalisation through a rate increase. The pace of growth should be extremely gradual and roughly follow the rise in inflation. As for the terminal value, it should be between 3.3% and 3.5% according to the Fed’s forecasts.

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