What asset allocation in this complex environment?

Dorval AM
"Choosing the most appropriate asset allocation decision demands a keen ear, foresight, experience and courage"
Louis Bert
Deputy-CEO in charge of the Convictions range
Although the economic fundamentals remain strong in developed economies, episodes of volatility are increasing. There are many sources of concern: from the consequences of the changing Chinese growth model to the indebtedness of the commodities sector in relation to the beginning of tightening of monetary conditions in the United States.

In a world in transition, it seems appropriate to move away from the major indices, populated with the winners of the previous cycle, to focus on the investment themes and the specific securities offering visibility and growth prospects.

We do not subscribe to a worst-case scenario factoring in a recession in the United States and a major crisis in emerging countries. Moreover, the Eurozone continues to surprise on the upside in economic terms and the earnings outlook for companies exposed to domestic demand is positive.

However, given the considerable uncertainties hanging over the markets, it seems prudent to hold more cash in the portfolios when going through this phase marked by concern. This is also a time to stay away from the major indices and to focus on stocks offering the best growth prospects. The dispersion of performances will remain significant in the coming weeks/months.

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